According to the latest data, we could see much lower support for the Brexit as anticipated before. The last week murder of British MP Jo Cox helped to support the Bremain camp and now the referendum seems to be more pro-European.
The betting company Betfair changed it’s Brexit betting from 3/1 to 6/1 (leave vs stay). You can see it here. This only confirms the broad belief, that the Bremain camp seems to be winning in the referendum.
First data should be prepared shortly after the closure of polls. Everyone is paying attention now to the results, different according to the UK areas. UK professor, Chris Hanretty of the University of East Anglia, has published specific guidelines in June for every area from the total number of 382. According to him, Sunderland should be one of the first counted regions, favouring Brexit of around 6% lead. If the referendum in this area ends with a smaller lead than the mentioned 6% or even in favour of Bremain, the Bremainers should be favoured. The same applies for Newcastle with even 12 points. Then he mentioned even other Brexit favouring areas, which he suggests to watch for much specific expectations about the results.
On Wednesday, the Brexit Barometer from IG Group Holdings plc seemed to be favouring Bremain camp pretty much. It showed only 24.5% for leave, while 75.5% should support staying in the EU.
The latest IG-Survation poll of what the actual results will be is 51% Remain vs. 49% Leave, based on a telephone poll of more than 1,000 voters conducted on Monday June 20.
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