Following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, market got an official confirmation of June’s inappropriate expectations of possible lifting of benchmark interest rate.
After finishing the asset-purchase program, market focuses now on the proper timing of first rate-hike of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the attention turns now to December mostly, albeit we can see some speculators focusing even on September’s meeting.
As majority of Fed’s policymakers mentioned before the FOMC, liftoff remains on the table every meeting, nevertheless Minutes showed that most of them expect the Q1 data-disappointment to persist even in Q2. Such adjustment of bets could drag dollar even lower from a short-term perspective, although long-term perspective remain bullish (for the dollar)
As Japan is fundamentally not providing any hugely relevant hints about their massive quantitative easing program, which could change the game, USD/JPY remains mostly influenced by the US dollar volatility.
From the technical point of view, we see the US dollar close to its resistance level at ¥121.362, hit on Wednesday. Next resistance level could be seen at ¥123.696, according to long-term dollar-bullish scheme.
As for short-term bearish impact mostly driven by the rate-hike postponement bets and poor data coming out since Q1 2015, we can expect bears to put TP on support level at ¥119.645 or later at ¥118.887
For any questions of recommendation, feel free to write us on hello@goforex.eu
You can meet us at Forex Expo in Bratislava, in May 20-21, 2015
